Friday, 7 March 2008

Museum für Völkerkunde - Seminarraum DG39

A-1010  WIEN, Neue Hofburg

Topic: "UN Security Council - Decision on an urgent crisis"

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Issue

Sudden shift of world climate. The Gulf Stream in the Atlantic on the brink of collapse.

Agenda items

1) Reestablishment of Security and launching of Aid Programs (short term actions)
2) Consequences of the current state of the Gulf Stream (long term policy/measures)
3) Introduction of a new chapter to the UN Charter dealing with global migration.

Background

Climate change researchers have detected significant signs of a slowdown/stop in the Gulf Stream -- the ocean current that keeps the Caribbean and parts of the Southern Hemisphere from boiling and Europe from freezing.

It was shown that over the last ten years the Gulf Stream has slowed as a result of global warming.  The weakening, apparently caused by melting ice in the Arctic diluting the salt that is keeping the saline warmer waters of the gulf stream afloat, could herald big changes over the next few years.

But scientists differ about how bad the situation will become:

One possibility is that, within years, Europe will freeze and the Caribbean, Southern Africa and Australia will boil. Southern America and India could become arid leaving nearly 3 billion people in water scarcity.

Another possibility is that the slowing of the Gulf Stream may keep Europe cool as global warming heats the rest of the world - but with more extremes in weather.

A third possibility is that the anomaly in the global current streams may only be a temporary phenomenon.

Hypothetic Scenario

The abrupt and dramatic change/temporary anomaly of the global climate system hits governments unprepared. The actual condition of the Gulf Stream triggers several immediate effects:

-          Mass-panic and hoarding among European consumers. Weather forecast for next week from the British Isles to northern Italy: more than 10-15° centigrade too cold for the season.

-          Stock markets crush and oil price reaches new peak and may further rise (from 130 to 150$/Barrel)

-          Manifestations/riots in mayor cities in developing countries against the ecological policy of industrialized countries.

-          The danger of a never seen migration of people all over the world from arid or cold regions to more fertile areas is immanent and could cause anarchy.

-          A fierce competition for power and resources takes place in world politics. (Resource-abundant development countries make new demands, etc...)

The situation is tense and there is no suitable institution to cope with the global problem. The Security Council sees the maintenance of international peace and security endangered and decides to address the issue.

Some useful links

A graphic of the Gulf Stream - it brings warm water to Europe and Northern America and cools down the Caribbean sea.
http://www.kalkandere.com/cevre/0010.jpg

Gulf stream a myth?:
http://www.americanscientist.org/template/AssetDetail/assetid/51963?fulltext=true&print=yes

List of environmental agreements:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_agreements

Charter of the United Nations:
http://www.un.org/aboutun/charter/

Security Council holds first-ever debate on impact of climate change:
http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2007/sc9000.doc.htm

All other records of the SC meetings on links between climate change and security can also be useful.