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Thursday, 14 January 2010
"Will There Be Enough Gas"
AFA Office (Kurt-Waldheim-Memorial-Library)
A-1010 WIEN, Johannesg. 2/2/32
The negotiators were strongly recommended to read the rules of procedure http://afa.at/vimun/rules2006.pdf
I. Scenario
In January 2009, the EU faced a gas crisis caused by a cutoff of Russian natural gas supplies as a consequence of the failure to reach an agreement on gas prices and supplies for 2009. In this scenario, we simulate (hypothetical) discussions between the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the European Union on November 19, 2009. In our fictitious scenario, the European Gas Coordination Group determined that the level of preparedness on the part of EU Member States and the Energy Community countries in case of gas crisis would be inadequate. As a consequence, the EU aims to reach an agreement to ensure energy security in Europe for the 2009/10 winter. Talks in recent days between the European Union and Russia have produced an agreement in which Moscow has promised to give an early warning of an impending gas cutoff.
II. Positions
European Union
In order to ensure a well-functioning open gas market within the common energy market, the European Commission is monitoring the market closely, identifying obstacles and shortcomings and initiating EU legislation to improve its functioning. The Russian Federation provides about a quarter of the natural gas consumed in Europe. Ukraine transports about 80% of Russian gas going to the EU.
A Gas Coordination Group has been established in 2006 to facilitate coordination of security of supply measures by the Community in the event of a major supply disruption. The Group is composed of representatives of Member States, of representative bodies in the industry concerned and of relevant consumers, under the chairmanship of the Commission. In our fictions scenario, the Gas Coordination group met on 18 November 2009 and concluded that out that the level of storage in most of the Member States is not adequate to prevent shortage similar to the one experienced in January 2009. The European Council on October 2009 urged Member States and the Parliament to take immediate action on the Commission’s proposal for the security of gas supply.
In our scenario, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, in the context of the the EU-Russia summit in Stockholm, along with the European Commission, represented by the European Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero Waldner and the Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs, hope to reach an agreement to ensure gas supply and to mediate in the ongoing disputes about the price of natural gas and transit charges.
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=CELEX:52009PC0363:EN:NOT
About the European energy policy:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/gas_electricity/index_en.htm
http://www.europeanenergyforum.eu/archives/european-union/eu-general-topic-file/eu-energy-management-security-of-supply-sustainable-development http://ec.europa.eu/commission_barroso/piebalgs/index_en.htm
About the Gas Coordination Group:
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/security/gas/gas_coordination_group_en.htm
To ensure an interesting debate, please ignore this press release:
Newspaper articles:
http://www.sofiaecho.com/2009/11/19/818006_is-the-eu-ready-to-face-another-russian-gas-crisis
http://www.thelocal.se/23298/20091116/
Ukraine
The gas conflict is politically related to Ukraine’s recent desire to forge a closer relationship with ‘Western’ Europe, i.e. EU and NATO. Ukraine, as the central transit route for Russian gas sold to Europe, seeks political support from the EU in order to increase its leverage in the gas dispute with Russia that took place in January 2009 of this year and which Ukraine considers to be politically motivated, particularly in light of next year’s presidential elections. From the EU, Ukraine expects a continued economic and political engagement.
http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/12644.html?PrintVersion
http://www.iss.europa.eu/.../Ukrainain_perspective_of_the_2009_gas_dispute.pdf
http://www.ceps.be/system/files/simplenews/CNfeb09forweb1.pdf
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2009/proceed/papers/P1240.pdf
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33407.pdf
http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/2724.pdf
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_16134-544-2-30.pdf
Russian Federation
In recent years, the global energy market has experienced tremendous volatility with extreme fluctuations in oil and gas prices. It has been in this context that the Russian Federation has sought to maintain its competitive position in the global energy market, by expanding into new markets and consolidating its position in existing markets.
In so doing, the Russian Federation has consistently striven to maximize the value it receives for its natural resources. This remains no less true with regard to the Russian Federations’ position toward Ukraine.
For many years now, the Russian Federation has generously provided Ukraine with natural gas priced well below market price. Ukraine has exploited these generous arrangements by reselling its excess, subsidized natural gas on the European market. With ambitious plans to expand its capacity to meet Europe’s ever growing demand for natural gas, the Russian Federation no longer feels that it can afford to continue supplying Ukraine with gas that will be resold at its expense onto the European market.
Today, with Ukraine being the central transit route for Russian gas sold on the European market, the Russian Federation is actively working to address Europe’s unease about the implications of the disagreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, by investing a considerable amount of its resources to construct two major, alternative natural gas supply lines for the European market. The Russian Federation considers these massive projects as proof of the seriousness of its commitment to ensuring stable and continuous supplies of gas to the European market.
http://en.rian.ru/papers/20091119/156906135.html
http://www.russianembassy.org/
http://www.sofiaecho.com/2009/11/19/818006_is-the-eu-ready-to-face-another-russian-gas-crisis
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33407.pdf
http://www.kas.de/wf/doc/kas_16134-544-2-30.pdf
http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Russia_and_the_CIS.pdf
http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/Russian_Ukrainian_gas_relations.pdf
http://en.rian.ru/papers/20091119/156906135.html
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