Tuesday, 24 March 2009

Universtität Wien - Juridicum - Seminarraum 41 (Stiege 1, 4. Stock)

A-1010  WIEN, Schottenbastei 10-16

"Simulation Game: What if Gorbachev Had Been Overthrown in October 1989?"

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I. Scenario

Our upcoming scenario is different to our previous ones since it rather resembles a simulation game than a (simulated) conference. Every 15-25 minutes of negotiations represents one month gone by. After every "month", all actors reveal their actions taken to face the crises (like military deploy, blockades, etc.).

The actors are the Federal Republic of Germany (West), the Democratic People’s Republic of Germany (East), France, United Kingdom, United States & Soviet Union

For multimedia introduction into a possibly similar scenario have a look at the following:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuDgNgUgAH8

This video is split in nine parts - each ten minutes long, so save it for a quiet, calm and enduring moment. (Der Dritte Weltkrieg - ZDF History TV-Fiktion)

The simulation starts October 1989. In the Eastern block and the Soviet Union the economical and social situation is tense. Visitors from East Germany regularly escape to Western Germany via the German Embassy in Prague. In Hungary reform politicians have opened up their country’s borders to Austria already in May the same year. In Poland the communist leadership conduct talks with the banned Solidarnosc (a workers union movement) and readmit them to partly-free workers union elections - of which they come out with a landslide victory.

All this becomes possible due to the new political course in Moscow: Mikhail Gorbatchev was elected General Secretary of the Communist Party in 1985, the leading position of the Central Committee of the USSR. He orders and has have carried out his ambitious and essential political reform package Glasnost (openness) and Perestroika (renewal) to the economically heavily damaged and structurally deadbeat Soviet Union. What Gorbatchev mostly tries to achieve through that programme is to halt the arms race of the Cold War - if needed, he is willing to do this unilaterally, without paralleling arms reduction on the US side. In 1988 Gorbatchev announces that the Soviet Union would abandon the Breschnew Doctrine, in consequence allowing the Eastern European states to principally decide on their political future autonomously.

In reality, this new freedom leads to a series of mostly peaceful revolutions in Eastern Europe between October and December 1989. This development ended the Cold War and paved the way for German Unification, in which Gorbatchev together with Helmut Kohl, George H.W. Bush, Margaret Thachter and François Mitterand took part in (2 + 4 talks). In 1990 Gorbatchev was awarded the Nobel Peace Price.

In our simulation game we will start with the situation of October 1989: In early October, Gorbatchev is on his way to the 40th celebration of the Democratic People’s Republic of Germany. At Schönefeld Airport Gorbatchev refers to his reform unwilling German comrade Erich Honecker and states: “Wer zu spat kommt, den bestraft das Leben.” (Those who are late will be punished by life itself). In reality, Honecker resigned only two weeks later and in the following, the eastern German state saw demonstrations, the first free elections and finally turgescent calls for German unification throughout the whole society. After the fall of the Berlin Wall (9th November), Gorbatchev stated that German reunification is an internal German matter.

In our fictional simulation game we do however follow a different course of history: After having participated in the 40th state celebration, Gorbatchev returns to Moscow and on arrival gets arrested and discharged from his political posts by Soviet hardliners, dissatisfied with his reform course. Consequently he is put under house arrest. The Kremlin and the Duma are rapidly taken over by hardliners and the question arises whether the Soviet Union will intervene and invade the freedom-seeking Eastern European states - therewith renewing the formerly abandoned Breschnew Doctrine. There is also uncertainty on how the West would react to this. In the Eastern Block, the situation culminates more and more. The still existing communist regimes are hardly able to bridle their people’s longing for free elections without resorting to weapons. Without the help of Soviet tanks they will be unable to uphold their regimes for much longer than some months.

II. The Positions

Democratic People’s Republic of Germany - Eastern Germany

The political leadership of Eastern Germany will mostly stand close to the Soviet Union. In case of reforms it might open up to Western Germany however. This position is a highly reactive one - taken aside the possibility that the positionholders/actor does wish to let an internal putsch occur and have. His/her country follow a pro-western course from early on - which however might prompt the Soviet Union to conduct a military intervention on the territory of its former ally (which could force the East German actor to redraw his stance towards Moscow).

Soviet Union - USSR

The position of the Soviet Union is one of the most intensive and probably most interesting position in the game - positionholders are required to act rapidly and surprisingly, and might be able to compromise towards the US position or totally confront with their atlantic opponent. In addition the Soviet Unions players course will be shaped by the audience of the simulation game - decisions that have to be directly taken into the player’s considerations. The Soviet actor should be aware of the fact that in reality the Eastern block felt apart in November and December 1989. Without a clear political course and the threat of military intervention this will also happen in our scenario.

United States of America - USA

George Bush senior was the then newly inaugurated 41th president of the USA. He was Vice President under President Reagan till he became "leader of the free world" himself on January 1989. In contradiction to today’s recent President Bush Jr., his father assiduously carried out his mandate and used all diplomatic channels available to him. He however could also access a toolbox of revolutionary military technology at that time. New and till that date unimagined weapon systems such as stealth aircrafts, cruise missiles and laser-guided weapons were available to the US forces. In our simulation President Bush will however be in great demand to keep his European Allies in line and swiftly and deliberately react on the Soviet Union’s actions.

France and United Kingdom

Both positions are very equal. Both countries were sceptical towards the idea of a German reunification. They doubted Germany's commitment to the west (EC, NATO) when Bonn makes a deal with Moscow on a possible reunification of the two German states. France and Great Britain were however dissatisfied about the speed of the process of rapprochement of the two German entities which they considered to be too fast. (To appease France Germany agreed on the plan to introduce the Euro as a common currency and to incorporate the EC into a more political union - the European Union). In case of a deep crisis between East and West the socialist French President Mitterand would see himself as an adequate partner to mediate between both sides. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher follows the the course of the United States. The deepening of the European Communities is not regarded as important as Germany's remain in NATO.

Federal Republic of Germany - Western Germany

This might be one of the the most challenging position in the game. On the one side it aims at negotiation for a lifting of physical borders (the Berlin Wall) and a reunification between East and West. West Berlin might however get trapped in case of a crisis with the Soviet Union and a lock down of the city through its surrounding East-German territory. In 1989 it would not be possible to supply a blockaded West Berlin by airlift as it happened in earlier Berlin Crises. If hostilities would break out, the conflict between East and West would therewith be carried out on German soil.

III. Moderator

The Team of Forum for International Negotiations will take part in the simulation as referee to ensure that the simulation will follow a rather realistic (alternative) way of history. The moderator will also decide on all events/happenings which are not under the control of the six actors (e.g. reforms in Romania) and on all points which can not be decided by the actors. (e.g. outcome of warfare).

IV. Proceeding of the simulation game

Each 15-25 min we will have a short break. Each break in our simulation is the equivalent of one month in real time. The aspired time span of the simulation is from October 1989 to February 1990. This time lapse will result in a pressingness to act and animates the simulation. For example the pressure to act quickly in case of Blockade of Berlin to save the inhabitants’ lives.

The audience will represent the Russian opinion leaders, incorporating political power (functionaries, military, top civilian leaders, the Russian people). During each break they decide on whether they still support the Russian Hardliners. In case they do not give their support to them, the Russian representatives have to act differently in accordance. The audience`s options in their decision is to choose between a hardliner, moderate, or reform political course).

It is up to the position-holders to decide on the way of interaction or of the mode of talks. This could be a UN Security Council session leading to UNSC Resolution draft, it could be NATO or talks under a CSCE setting. Further possible modes of interaction would be 2+4 talks (West-& East-Germany + 4 allied powers) or talks on a European Community Stage, the latter however being only a side-scene of action.

Shortly before each break, each position-holder has to announce his or her next steps in the simulation. This could e.g. be a Soviet invasion into the other Eastern-European countries, a mobilisation of the French Army reservists and a moving of troops to Western Germany or a redeployment of naval vessels… This allows and pressures the other players to react accordingly. The simulation therewith should rather be an up and down between escalation and diplomatic efforts than a detailed discussion! Another factor of influence is the audience, as described before.

Candidates for role-holders are required to prepare for their role as early as possible, to be able to live up in their roles as vividly and lively as possible, which however does not mean that they have to realistically replay history. It would be an additional advantage if candidates also prepare documents or simulations steps, such as warning resolutions, which they could use similar to poker cards during the game. It is however also recommendable to be aware of ones and the other country’s week points (general overview) such as domestic political tensions or economy dependency and military strength in 1989.

Every country can be represented by two negotiators.