FORUM FOR INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS - TENTH SIMULATION

 

Tuesday, 16 December 2008

 
Café Museum
A-1010  WIEN, Operng. 7
 
"5-Day War in Georgia and the Dispute Over Abkhazia and South-Ossetia"
 
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
 

Participants

 

Georgia

Russian Federation

USA

EU

UNOMIG

OSCE Mission to Georgia

Abkhazia

South Ossetia

 

 

Hypothetical scenario

 

August

 

After a long period of low-level hostilities in Georgia’s breakaway region South Ossetia, the Georgian government launched an offensive on the entity’s capital Tskhinvali early on 8 August. Russia, who acts as a strong supporter of the region’s demand for independence from Georgia, answered with a heavy counter-attack by sending in tanks and ground troops, establishing a naval blockade in the Black Sea and bombing several locations in Georgia. Soon fighting spread to the second breakaway region Abkhazia. On 12 August, the French presidency of the European Union managed to reach a ceasefire agreement between Moscow and Tbilisi, which called for an immediate end to all use of force and for both sides to pull back its armies. But the fighting continued and Russian troops advanced as far into Georgia as the city of Gori. Although the Russian President Medvedev promised that the Russian troops would pull out from Georgia, the retreat was repeateply delayed until 22 August.

 

There has been a great dispute about the number of casualties: while Russian side spoke about the death of 133 civilians and 64 Russian soldiers, the Georgia claimed that several hundred people died. However Human Rights Watch documented 419 killed, mostly South Ossetian militia. According to the UNHCR, the war caused about 30 000 ethnic Ossetians to leave their homes, almost all seeking refuge in Russia’s North Ossetia Republic, as well as further 128 000 Georgians fled from the attacked Georgian territories.

 

On 26 August, the Russian Federation officially recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent States. While the Abkhaz side greeted Russia’s decision as “historic”, the Georgian government called it illegitimate and a violation of the fundamental principles international law and of several Security Council resolutions. The international community strongly criticised Russia’s “disproportionate” response and expressed its support for Georgia’s territorial integrity.

 

Georgia, in reaction, declared Abkhazia and South Ossetia as territories occupied by the Russian Federation. Furthermore the 1994 Moscow Agreement was declared null and void by the Georgian Government. Nevertheless Saakashvili repeated his countries commitment to the six-point ceasefire plan which was in his vies the only valid basis for conflict resolution.

 

September

 

On 1 September, Georgia notified the CIS Executive Council on its decision to terminate the CIS peacekeeping operation  (In 1992 all Members of the Commonwealth of Independent States – that is to say a regional organisation which members are the former Soviet Republics - decided to establish Collective Peacekeeping Forces on Georgian territory in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.)in Abkhazia, Georgia and withdrew from the CIS and subsequently severed diplomatic relations with the Russian Federation.

 

On 9 September Russia and Abkhazia established formal diplomatic relations which was followed by the signing of an agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance. The agreement included regulations on cooperation in the economic, legal and security fields, including the construction and use of military bases.

 

The EU responded swiftly and suspended negotiations with Russia on a partnership agreement. While an EU delegation visited the region on 8 September in order to push Russia to comply with the terms of the ceasefire agreement: Again Russia promised to pull out of Georgia, but determined that troops would stay in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In accordance to the six-point Agreement the EU established a civilian and unarmed mission in Georgia. The missions mandate was to monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreements, including the withdrawal of Russian and Georgian armed forces to the positions held prior to the outbreak of hostilities. Thus the mission tried to stabilise the situation in the conflict areas. The first monitors were deployed on 1 October to the cities of Zugdidi, Poti, Gori and Tbilisi and they confirmed the withdrawal of Russian forces from territory bordering South Ossetia (SO) and Abkhazia by 10 Oct deadline. Nevertheless the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) was blocked from the breakaway regions where Russian troops remained.

 

Nevertheless the situation on the ground was still tense with several bombings, shootings and killings taking place in October.  On 15 October, the so called Geneva Talks, an attempt of the EU Presidency to anew start negotiations between Moscow and Tbilisi, failed because Russia insisted on the attendance of separatist authorities SO and Abkhazia.

 

In the meantime the Georgian President Saakashvili had to cope with increasing opposition pressure. During the war the whole country backed the President against Russia but after the clear military defeat critics reproached him for misleading the country during the war and for walking into a Russian trap. Consequently Saakashvili dismissed several ministers and a parliamentary commission was established to investigate the events of August.

 

November

 

On 19 November a second attempt to start negotiations was made. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister accompanied by representatives from breakaway South Ossetia as well as the Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister in company of the heads of Tbilisi-backed Abkhaz government-in-exile and South Ossetian provisional administration held an informal meeting in Geneva with delegations from the USA, the EU, the OSCE and the UN. Two informal discussion groups were established, one dealing with security issues and the other with displaced persons. And finally the negotiators scheduled a follow-up meeting on 17 December.

 

December

 

As the winter comes closer the situation among the internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees grows more and more dire. Simultaneously the tensions between the separatist movements and Georgia rise again. Bombings, killings and the shelling of a Georgian village are reported, while all actors deny being responsible.

 

On 9 December the Georgian army again shot down an unmanned aerial vehicle in Abkhazian territory on its way back from Georgian territory coming from Russia. The Russian foreign minister called the shooting an act of aggression and Abkhazia warned Georgia not to violate the Abkhazian borders again. Georgia responded that the country only defended its territories, called on Russia to comply with the six-point agreement and threatened to be absent at the Geneva talks.

 

 

Background Information on the Five-Day-War in August

 

July 2008

 

The Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, as the Coordinator of the Group of Friends (The Group of Friends of the Secretary General consists of Great Britain, France, Germany, the United States and Russia.) presented a plan for the settlement of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict while he visited the region. The plan intended a three-phase process: the first phase stipulated agreements on security measures, including a non-use of force agreement, and the right of return for internally displaced persons and refugees; the second phase envisaged economic rehabilitation and several confidence-building measures; and the final phase contemplated negotiations on the final status of Abkhazia.

 

But the Georgian side as well as the Abkhaz side had some unaccomplishable prerequisites which caused the whole process to end in talk

 

4 August

 

The exchange of fire between the Georgia and South Ossetia had intensified very heavily and Abkhazia warned that “if Georgia starts fighting against South Ossetia, Abkhazia will open a second front”.

 

7 August

 

Russia claimed that Georgia was preparing a war against the breakaway region. Tensions rose and during the night the Georgian military deployed a large force into South Ossetia attacking the capital Tskhinvali. The Russian peacekeepers were overrun.

 

8 August

 

Russia responded with a massive attack on the Georgian troops in South Ossetia, claiming to defend the Russian citizens living in SO. (On 5 December 2000 the Russian Federation unilaterally imposed a visa regime on Georgia which caused damage on the Georgian economy as many Georgians live in their home country but work in Russia. Furthermore the visa regime exempted residents of the secessionist Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from the visa regime and eases the requirements to receive a Russian citizenship for South Ossetians and Abkhazians whose passports are now only valid in Russia and the independent regions. So now a great percentage of the inhabitants of South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Russian citizens.) As there was never a peace-keeping mission like UNOMIG in Abkhazia it was difficult to verify the details about the contradicting information from the Russian and Georgian side. Russian military operations quickly extended beyond South Ossetia including air attacks on the town of Gori which is outside the demilitarised zone, the port of Poti and an airfield in Senaki as well as establishing a naval blockade in the Black Sea. The fighting also spread to Abkhazia where Abkhaz separatists launched air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Valley. The UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) withdrew its observers from the Upper Kodori Valley in Abkhazia.

 

9 August

 

The UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) withdrew its observers from the Upper Kodori Valley in Abkhazia. As the Russian forces controlled SO and moved into Georgian territory, the Georgian President called for international help. While the US rather kept a low profile the French EU Presidency took the lead in negotiating a cease-fire agreement. UNHCR reported 100 000 refugees on both sides.

 

10 August

 

The Russian Federation introduced large numbers of troops into the zone of conflict by road, rail and air. While the troops were initially deployed on the Gali side of the ceasefire line, they were later moved into the Zugdidi side of the zone of conflict. Russian navy ships were deployed along the coast.

 

11 August

 

Russian ground forces from Abkhazia were reported to be in the vicinity of Senaki which is well inside Georgia.

 

12 August

 

The French presidency of the European Union visited Moscow and Tbilisi. The discussions led to the formulation of a six-point ceasefire plan and the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to Russian military operations but said Russian troops would not withdraw from their current positions in Georgia. But Georgia claimed that the attacks were still continuing.

 

Positions

 

Georgia

 

Multi-ethnic Georgia has been under different rulers throughout its history. After a declaration of independence in 1918 Georgia was occupied by the Red Army and became a Soviet Republic. During the Soviet Period the independence movement remained strong and finally in 1991 Georgia became independent. At the same time Abkhazia and South Ossetia declared their own independence and fought off the Georgian attempt to sustain its territorial integrity. So both regions remained de-facto independent and in the 1992 Sochi Agreement between Russia and Georgia the parties agreed to take measures to stop the military confrontation and observe a ceasefire. A demilitarised zone and a security corridor along the border of South Ossetia were established where Russian peacekeepers were deployed. In 2003 the Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze – the former foreign minister of the Soviet Union – was removed from power within the so called Rose Revolution led by the country’ next President Mikheil Saakashvili. Under the new President the country was geared to the USA and the EU in order to strengthen the Georgian independence from Russia. A strong indication for this development was the opening of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in September 2002 and Georgia’s support for the “War on Terror”.

 

Georgia has furthermore applied for NATO Membership and has been a member of the NATO Partnership for Peace Programme since 1994. In the last decades Georgia seeks to increase its ties with the USA by strongly supporting the “War on Terror” not only in the region but also in Iraq by sending troops. The United States in return expanded their military support. Russia has always seen this close relationship as a threat to Russian influence in the region. Although Georgia’s political orientations is towards the west, its most important trade partner are Russia, Azerbaijan and Germany.

 

The Georgian Government has only limited power over some of its regions: While South-Ossetia and Abkhazia are now protected by Russian troops; also in the northeast where many Chechens live the government does not have full control.

 

The deployment of the EMM was a big achievement for Georgia who wanted to internationalise the peace-keeping because Russia did not act as an impartial mediator. During the Geneva Talks it has been essential for the Georgian delegation to ensure that the Abkhazian and South-Ossetian de-facto governments are not recognised although they were part of the negotiations.

 

Abkhazia

 

Abkhazia was annexed by the Russian empire in the 19th century; the majority (60%) of the Abkhaz people fled the country. The vacated territories were settled by Russians, Georgians, Armenians, and other ethnic groups. Being Stalin’s favorite holiday region, Abkhazia was incorporated into Georgia in 1931. Georgian was declared the official language and repression of the Abkhaz culture and language and Georgian resettlement followed. As a result, at the time of the collapse of the UdSSR in 1991, only one fifth of the population of Abkhazia was ethnic Abkhaz; together with Russians and Armenians they were opposing approx. 45% Georgians.

 

Already during the soviet era, manifestations demanding the inclusion into the RSFSR were held. When Georgia became independent, supporters of a break with Tbilisi, in favor of independence and closer ties with Russia became more vociferous. Tensions rose, resulting in a war between Georgian government forces on one side and Abkhaz separatist groups, supported by thousands of North Caucasus and Cossack militants, on the other side in 1992 and 1993. Although Russia claimed neutrality during the war, Russian politicians and military officials were involved in several ways, inter alia being the main information and arms source. The war led to a military victory by the Abkhaz, gross human rights violations and ethnic cleansing of Georgian civilians. A UNOMIG mission was put into place in August 1993, to verify the Sochi ceasefire agreement. Nevertheless, the Government of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia, then called the "Council of Ministers of Abkhazia", was driven out of the region in September 1993, and the agreement was broken. In June 1994 a CIS peacekeeping mission was installed, with mainly Russian peacekeeping forces. After the installation of a new ceasefire agreement in July 1994, the Security Council expanded the UNOMIG mission to observe the CIS troops. However, atrocities against Georgians could not be prevented. The new constitution by the de facto Abkhaz leaders in November 1994 was not recognized.  In April-May 1998 the conflict escalated once again, but the President of Georgia of that period, Shevadnadze refused to deploy armed forces and a new ceasefire was negotiated.

 

Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1999, but no single state recognized its sovereignty.  Although at a CIS summit it was decided to exclude any contact with separatists, trans-border economic cooperation grew in scale, making the ruble the de facto currency. Moreover, Russia started to issue passports in Abkhazia, resulting in retirement payments and monetary benefits. The government under the Georgian president Saakashvili promised not to use force and to settle the conflict by deploying diplomacy and talks. In 2004 and 2005 Presidential elections were held with Russian support, but without recognition by any state or IO.

 

Due to the 2006 Kodori crisis, when militia leader Kvitsiani declared his disobedience to Georgian authorities under the new president and Georgia sent the Interior Ministry special forces to disarm him, a de jure government was installed within Abkhazia for the first time since 1993. This government was later driven out of Upper Abkhazia in the five days war.

 

After sporadic acts of violence and several alleged airspace violations, the conflict escalated in Kodori gorge on 9 August 2008.

 

The Republic of Abkhazia with Sukhumi as its capital was recognized by Russia on 26 August 2008 and later on by Nicaragua as well as the de facto independent republics of South Ossetia and Transnistria. The Abkhaz de facto government wants to prolong the UN mission in Abkhaz territory, but with a new name and mission mandate. The strong ties with Russia are seen not only as the main stability factor, but also as the only possibility to protect Abkhazia from new Georgian aggressions. Georgian offers of big autonomy within Georgia is out of question.

 

South-Ossetia

 

The term South Ossetia, now referring to the disputed (former) autonomous region in Georgia first appeared in the mid of the 19th century when it was already incorporated (by force) in the Russian Empire along with today’s Georgia.  In 1922 when Georgia was sovietised South Ossetia became an autonomous province within the territory of Georgia.

 

Almost 70 years later, in 1990, when the Soviet Union was about to collapse South Ossetia declared its independence from the then Georgian Socialist Soviet Republic as South Ossetian Democratic Republic and planned to federalize with North Ossetia. In response, South Ossetia’s autonomous status was suspended by the Georgian government leading to a civil war claiming numerous victims and refugees. In 1992 the fights came to a (preliminary) end when a ceasefire agreement between Russia, South Ossetia and Georgia was signed and a mixed peacekeeping force comprising of the parties involved was established subsequently, the latter being monitored by the OSCE Mission to Georgia which had been set up to facilitate negotiations. However, a political solution of the issue has not been reached. South Ossetia has had de facto separation from Georgia since the end of the civil war in 1992. (In 1991 - 1992 South Ossetia fought a war to break away from the newly independent Georgia.) The 1992 Sochi Agreement between Russia and Georgia committed the parties to take measures to halt the military confrontation and observe a ceasefire. It established a demilitarised zone and a security corridor along the border of South Ossetia. Under the agreement Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the disputed territory as an international force to guarantee the peace pending a negotiated settlement. In 1996, Georgia and South Ossetia, with the participation of Russia, the Republic of North Ossetia and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), signed the 1996 Memorandum on Measures to Provide Security and Strengthen Mutual Trust between the Parties to the Georgian-Ossetian conflict.

 

The OSCE-Joint Control Commission with Georgian, South and North Ossetian and Russian participation was established as the main negotiation mechanism. Current leader Eduard Kokoiti – elected in unrecognised presidential elections in 2001 and 2006 – aims for reunification with North Ossetia within the Russian Federation. Renewed fighting broke out in South Ossetia in summer 2004, when Tbilisi attempted to resolve the conflict through anti-smuggling operations. In 2007 Georgia proposed changes to peace negotiations to replace OSCE-led Joint Control Commission and established provisional administration in Georgian-controlled areas of the conflict zone. Russia and South Ossetia never accepted the modifications, and negotiations had since remained suspended.

 

The representative of South Ossetia represents the government de-facto in control of the territory. Based on the self-determination principle, the long-term objective of South Ossetia is  independence, to which all measures should be taken, and it has until this day avoid  making explicit statement to join Russia. Guided by this principle also, it is clear for South Ossetia that Georgia has the responsibility in triggering the 5-Day War. The talks are pointless without representative of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in the following formal meetings. Any attempt to degrade or exclude South Ossetian representative in future talks is not acceptable. The representative of pro-Georgian regional government in exile (for both Abkhazian and South Ossetia) is not necessary as they have not exercised any effective control over the territory and are seen as represented by Georgia. While agreeing that an improved security on the borderline between South Ossetia and Georgia is needed, no extension of the EU and OSCE mandate, not in substantive and geographical terms in this regard, is necessary. South Ossetia condemns the supplying of Georgia with offensive weapons by some western countries. Although South Ossetia agrees that there exists an urgent need to deal with internal displaced persons and humanitarian issues, it prefers to engage international organs into the region to the OSCE or EU.

 

Russian Federation

 

In the last years the Russian Federation faced a loss of influence over several former soviet republics as Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine which all started to ally with the US and the EU.

 

During the war Russia’s aim clearly was to punish Georgia for its NATO course. During the first round of the Geneva Talks Russia stressed for including Abkhazian and South-Ossetian delegations in the negotiations.

 

Russia also has great interest in the rich resources of the Caspian Sea and the pipeline projects in Georgia clearly threaten the Russian supremacy in exporting oil to the European Union.

 

United States of America

 

The United States seeking to become less dependent on Arab oil after 9/11 increasingly focused on the region near the Black Sea, where several pipelines are to be build in the future. Georgia and Azerbaijan allied themselves with the US and in return received military, political and economic support. In May 2002, 200 military trainers from the United States started to assist the reform of the Georgian Army and since this the United States expanded their military presence: In February 2003, the United States was offered the possibility of using military bases on Georgian territory.

 

Seeking to strengthen its local partners the United States is the strongest supporter of a Georgian NATO Membership and has recently pushed for a faster accession, to which the other NATO Members did not agree.

 

EU

 

Under the French Presidency the EU has been very active in resolving the crisis in the South-Caucasus and deployed a Monitoring Mission (EUMM) to Georgia which is positioned in a buffer area between the de-facto independent region and Georgia.

 

Shortly after the war the EU cancelled negotiations with Russia on a Partnership Agreement but recently the negotiations took place.

 

This is due to disunity in the EU Member States’ interests: While countries like Germany, which is very dependent on Russian Oil, support a softer and friendly course, eastern Member States favour a harsher attitude because of their experience during the Cold War.

 

The EU is also very eager to expand the mandate of the EUMM to the secessionist regions which is strongly opposed by Russia.

 

UN/ UNOMIG

 

On 7 August the Secretary-General expressed his serious concern about the mounting violence in South Ossetia and urged parties to refrain from actions that could escalate the situation and threaten the stability of the region. He issued a second statement on the evening of 9 August expressing his alarm over the escalation of hostilities and concern about the violence spreading outside the zone of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict and urged all parties to engage in negotiations towards a peaceful settlement.

 

The humanitarian situation has become a matter of serious concern as the numbers of displaced and injured increase. UNHCR has estimated up to 100,000 internally displaced.  Many refugees have crossed the border into Russia. The UN began providing humanitarian aid to those displaced by the conflict in South Ossetia on 11 August.

 

 

Task of the participants

 

This time the Geneva Talks which took place on 19 November, and will take place on 17 December 2008. The delegate may also take into account the result of the first round of the Talks. As the Talks deal with a multitude of issues and following conferences are probable, the main objective of this simulation is not only to find a short-term and long-term solution to the current conflict, but, if possible, also to draw a roadmap for future talks. Please also pay attention to the close link between the 5-Day War and the Conflict in two provinces.

 

 

Links

 

What Has Moscow Done? - Rebuilding U.S.-Russian Relations
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20081001faessay87602/stephen-sestanovich/what-has-moscow-done.html

EUMM
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/080929-EUMM_Factsheet_REV.pdf

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/cms3_fo/showPage.asp?id=1512&mode=g&lang=en

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cmsUpload/081023-EUMM_in_Georgia-version3_EN.pdf

Foreign council georgia
http://www.mfa.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=1

Timeline of Russian Aggression in Georgia
http://www.mfa.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=461&info_id=8053

reports of the SG about abhkazia
http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N08/526/58/PDF/N0852658.pdf?OpenElement

resolutions SC
http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N08/306/29/PDF/N0830629.pdf?OpenElement

UNSC report
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/site/c.glKWLeMTIsG/b.2400781/

chronology
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/site/c.glKWLeMTIsG/b.2703511/

UN documents
http://www.securitycouncilreport.org/site/c.glKWLeMTIsG/b.2703457/

 

 


 
LAST UPDATE: 27 DECEMBER 2008